Conference-By-Conference Preview

Look at each conference race; Yuba the favorite in the Bay Valley Conference ...

January 2, 2017

North

Bay Valley Conference — The nine-team Bay Valley Conference schedule tips off this week, which isn’t good news for seven of the teams in the conference. Just two teams — Yuba and Marin — begin the season with records above .500. The win/loss record for the conference stands at 30-56 in nonconference games, a .348 winning percentage. At 10-2, Yuba, winners of nine of the last 10 conference titles, is the clear cut favorite for conference title No. 10. Six of their 10 wins have been by 10 points or more, and the 49’ers only losses have been to defending state champion San Francisco by 8 points and North Idaho, which is 9-1 on the year, by 4 points. The conference wildcard is Marin, which opened the season with consecutive losses and then went dark for a month.

When Marin finally re-emerged, after its month’s long hibernation, the Mariners ran off four consecutive wins, winning the Foothill Tournament and concluding preseason play by taking third-place at the Modesto Tournament.

Solano, winners of three of its last five games, after losing three straight to open the season, potentially could battle Marin for second place and a playoff berth. The Falcons have shown they can win close games, winning won three overtime contests and two games by three points or less. Regardless, we see this as one-team race. Only the 49’ers can ruin it. It will be interesting if Marin and Solano can defend home court when Yuba, which has the state’s sixth best Massey ranking, comes a calling (Yuba at Solano, Jan. 3; Yuba at Marin, Jan. 18). If they can’t, look for Yuba to run the table to a perfect 16-0 mark.

Conference Winner: Yuba.

Playoff Contenders: Marin and Solano have the best chance. But with the conference down this year, probably only two teams advance to the playoffs from the conference.

Big Eight — This has the making of a great conference race. Six teams will see 2017 rise with records above or at .500. Diablo Valley is the only team that has managed to win 10 games or more, yet Santa Rosa, American River, Cosumnes River, Sacramento City and San Joaquin Delta will posse an opposition to Diablo Valley running away with the conference title. All of the five mentioned teams rank in the top 42 in the Massey Ranking, which gauges team’s schedule strength. Diablo Valley, 23^rd in the Massey Ranking, will go into conference having won seven consecutive games and seven of eight in December. Santa Rosa, which was 3-3 in December, and American River, which only played four games in December, both backed into 2017, losing its final two games in 2016. Cosumnes River won four of its first five games in December, but faded, losing two of its next four games. Meanwhile, Sacramento closed out 2016 with two wins at the Siskiyous Tournament. SJ Delta had a tough December, losing five of nine games, however, the Mustangs did make the finals of its own tournament, losing to San Francisco, defending state champions.

Conference Winner: Diablo Valley is playing the best ball headed into January, so the safe pick is to select the Vikings, which is exactly what we are going to do. However, if Diablo Valley lets it guard down any of the above teams could find themselves battling for the title in February.

Playoff Contenders: Since teams have to finish .500 in conference to be considered for a playoff spot, the race for the two or three other playoff spots will be contentious. Look for the conference to send as many as four teams — Diablo Valley, Santa Rosa, American River and either Cosumnes River or possibly Sacramento.

Central Valley — By our count, Fresno City has won the last 15 Central Valley Conference championships. And we are betting, the Rams will make it 16 in row in 2017. At 11-4, Fresno is coming off the Modesto Tournament championship, its second this season. This year’s team isn’t lighting up the scoreboard like previous teams, yet the Rams appear armed for a possible run to a state tournament berth. Fresno finished December 7-2, losing only to North Idaho and Cerritos by six points at the Mt. SAC Classic. This year, it appears, Fresno’s opposition to the conference crown will come from — West Hills and Merced. For Merced this is a new territory after going a combined 4-45 the last two years with two last-place conference finishes. The Blue Devils are off to an 8-5 start this season after a 4-3 December. West Hills, which finished second to Fresno last year, is 28-28 over the last two seasons, but have things going in the right direction headed into 2017. West Hills opened the season with three consecutive losses, but since then the Golden Eagles are 8-1 and recently won the San Diego Mesa Tournament, where they stunned East Los Angeles in the finals, 73-70 in OT.

Conference Winner: Fresno. You simply don’t go against a 15-time conference champion.

Playoff Contenders: We are pulling for Merced to make the post-season, head coach Bill Russell is a sure Hall of Fame candidate when he hangs up his whistle. The combination of Steve Coulanges, Darius Scott and Romario Saunders propels West Hills to the post-season. Look for Columbia and Sequoias too look to climb into the playoff hunt, pushing West Hills and Merced.

Coast-North — Six of the seven teams in Coast-North have won nine games or more, including five teams that have posted double digit wins in the preseason. The division’s teams went a combined 75-33, a .694 winning percentage. Take out Chabot’s 3-11 record and the winning percentage climbs to a staggering .766 percentage. But all of the numbers still point to San Francisco, the defending state champions, as the division’s favorite, but we’re expecting Las Positas to make San Francisco earn this year’s title. San Francisco leads the state with 15 victories. The Rams’ lone loss was to Fresno by one in the finals of the Fresno Tournament in November. Since then San Francisco has had just one one game decided by 10 points or less.

Las Positas, which went 7-1 in December, finished 2016 with a six-game winning streak. In fact, six teams will take a win streak into the start of conference play. Canada, Ohlone and Foothill all won 10 games or more, and Skyline came within a game of winning 10 games.

Conference Winner: San Francisco, the defending state champions, has played the state’s second toughest schedule and it will pay dividends in January and February.

Playoff Contenders: It will be James Giacomazzi’s job to convince the northern reps that the division deserves as many as four teams in the playoff field (which would be 20 percent of the field). Las Positas, Canada, Ohlone, Foothill and Skyline will all be contenders for a post-season spot, thanks to their strong preseason play.

Coast—South — Things aren’t as rosy in the sister division. Only two teams enter 2017 with a winning record. As a conference, the seven teams combined for a 29-63 preseason record, a .315 winning percentage. Cabrillo, which had three wins in December, leads the division with eight wins in 14 tries. Hartnell, the only other team with a record above .500, is 6-5 after losing its final three preseason games. Three teams enter the season with losing streaks of seven games or more.

Conference Winner: Cabrillo has played the state’s 34^th toughest schedule which should help propel the Seahawks to the conference title.

Playoff Contender: The division could be hard pressed to send two teams to the regionals. Hartnell’s preseason schedule ranks 77^th out of 93.

Golden Valley — Shaping up to be a three-team race between — Feather River, Butte and Lassen. Each have already surpassed the 10-win mark headed into conference play. Feather River has the state’s third best win total at 13, and also gets back last year’s state scoring leader in Derrick Randolph, who has been rehabbing a knee injury. Feather River is also coming off a great month, going 8-2 in December with a signature win over Citrus and a tournament title. The Golden Eagles will be tested early, opening with Butte (at home) and Lassen (on the road). Butte, meanwhile, struggled in December, losing it last three games and five of 11 games in the month. In the Roadrunners’ defense, two of the losses came to out-of-state (and scholarship players) teams. Lassen managed a 4-3 December, but needed to win its final two games at the Modesto Tournament in order to post an above .500-month record. Feather River holds the best Massey Ranking at 16, followed by Butte at 22 and Lassen at 50.

Conference Winner: This could be a nail bitter, but we’re going with Feather River to win the conference title. Getting Randolph back will be the difference.

Playoff Contenders: We think the conference’s top three teams — Feather River, Butte and Lassen — have played a strong enough preseason schedule to position themselves for a regional bid.

South

Orange Empire — This year’s Orange Empire Conference race could be one of the best in the state, with as many as four teams with a shot at wrestling the conference title from Saddleback, winners of the last five conference titles. Fullerton and Riverside appear to be the Gauchos’ biggest challengers, but Irvine Valley — an 8-point loser to Saddleback in the finals of the Saddleback Tournament in December — could also be threat. It is difficult to beat a team three times. The Gauchos get Irvine Valley and Riverside at home, before closing out the first round of conference with a road game at Fullerton. Riverside’s focus will be challenged with a string of opponents — Saddleback, Fullerton, Cypress (playoff contender), Irvine Valley. Ten years ago it wasn’t uncommon for the Orange Empire Conference to place four, even five, six teams into the regional playoffs. With a strong showing, either Orange Coast or Cypress could make it an OEC party in the regionals.

Conference Winner: Saddleback, we don’t bet against a five-time conference champion, but if we did, money would be on Riverside, the top scoring team in the conference. The Tigers will need to dictate the pace of games (up and down), which is hard to do against Saddleback and Irvine Valley.

Playoff Contenders: Riverside, Fullerton, Irvine Valley. If either Cypress or Orange Coast can pull an upset of the top four, it may be enough to push them into a regional slot.

Pacific Coast-North — The collapse of the Foothill Conference has created a couple of power conferences/divisions, especially in the men’s basketball. And this is one of the best with San Bernardino Valley joining Mt. San Jacinto, San Diego Miramar and MiraCosta in the Pacific Coast-North. This is shaping up, like the Orange Empire Conference, to be a showdown to the end. Ironically, San Bernardino finishes its conference schedule with home games against Miramar (Feb. 15) and Mt. San Jacinto (Feb. 17), the defending conference champions. When San Bernardino and Mt. San Jacinto were members of the Foothill Conference their battles were epic, for the fans’ sake we hope this year is no different. At the same time, don’t be surprised if Miramar or MiraCosta steals some of the thunder. Palomar has also shown some life, winning three of its last four games in 2016.

Conference Winner: San Bernardino Valley. The Wolverines need to figure out a way to win close games, two of their three losses have been by two points or less. If we were to beat against San Bernardino, we would take Miramar — winners of nine of their last 10 games. Mt. San Jacinto has been inconsistent, losing four of their last six games headed into its final tournament of the season at Cuesta, where the Eagles will face tests from El Camino and East Los Angeles, before closing out preconference play against San Diego Mesa. Mt. San Jacinto needs a good showing in San Luis Obispo to reignite talk of the Eagles truly being a threat for the conference title.

Playoff Contenders: San Diego Miramar and Mt. San Jacinto. MiraCosta will need a couple upsets to improve its Massey ranking and swing a conference rep votes.

Pacific Coast-South — San Diego City, winners of nine of its last 10 games, has emerged as the favorite in the Pacific Coast-South. The Knights and Grossmont will be only two teams in the division to begin 2017 with a record above .500. The other four teams in the division hold a combined win/loss record of 15-42. San Diego gets four of its first six conference games at home, including a game with Grossmont on January 18, which could give the Knights a solid footing for the divisional title.

Conference Winner: San Diego City is the clear favorite. The Knights’ bench is deep, with 10 players having played in all 18 games to date. And their four other bench players have played in 17, 16, 14 and 9 games, respectively.

Playoff Contender: Grossmont will be a bubble playoff team, but making the playoffs isn’t out of reach. The Griffins play in the Clete Adelman Classic prior to starting divisional play and a strong showing, especially an opening-game upset of MiraCosta would go a long way in helping the Griffins case for a spot in the post-season tournament.

South Coast-North — The South Coast-North race figures to come down to three teams, and possibly could be one of the most exciting, considering Chaffey, the division newcomer finishes conference with games against East Los Angeles and Mt. San Antonio. The addition of Chaffey, which was a Final Four team last year, from the disbanded Foothill Conference has raised the difficulty of winning this division title. Chaffey figures to battle East Los Angeles, a state finalist in 2015, and Mt. San Antonio, state champions in 2013 for the division title. The three favorites have already reached the 10-win plateau.

LA Trade Tech and Rio Hondo could be spoilers. However, each have struggled in December after strong November showings. Rio Hondo went 2-6 in December, after winning six of its first eight games. LA Trade Tech opened the season winning six of nine games, but December took a toll on the Beavers as they lost five of their next eight, including their final four games in 2016.

Conference Winner: East Los Angeles, who has four players scoring in double figures, struggled in December, going 4-3, but the Huskies’ losses led like a who’s who — Saddleback, Mt. San Jacinto and West Hills. There is a significant drop off when the Huskies reach into their bench, but we think East LA has the odds-on favorite. Although, the division ending in a two-way — or even a three-way tie — for the division crown is a possibility.

Playoff Contenders: East LA, Chaffey and Mt. SAC are guaranteed playoff entrants. LA Trade Tech and Rio Hondo will need to score an upset or two in division play to improve their chances of making the playoffs.

South Coast-South — This is another division that could produce a great race to the finish, only issue is the two best horses — Cerritos and El Camino-Compton Center — meet in the opening game of conference play, so one team will take control of the division race — quickly. Cerritos, which has played the state’s 6^th toughest schedule, opens 2017 after posting a perfect December — eight straight wins, including wins over Fresno, Mt. SAC, Sequoias and Ventura — teams expected to either win or compete for their conference championship. Meanwhile, El Camino-Compton Center, who has played the 5^th toughest schedule, has posted wins over San Bernardino, Mt. San Jacinto and Chaffey, and posted a December record of 9-2, which included a surprising 89-68 rout of Fullerton on December 30. El Camino-Compton Center will carry a six-game win streak into 2017.

El Camino played just five times in December, going a disappointing 2-3 after winning 6 of 7 games in November. The Warriors have scored 100 or points six times this season, ironically, they lost two of those games. Defense win games, and if El Camino is serious about competing for the division title they’ll need to play defense.

Conference Winner: It is going to be a battle between Cerritos and El Camino-Compton Center. The last time Cerritos had an eight-game streak was in 2005-06 and the Falcons finished second to Long Beach City in the conference race. We think history repeats itself. El Camino-Compton Center looks just to good headed into conference. However, we wouldn’t be surprised if Cerritos and ECCC shared the conference title.

Playoff Contenders: Look for the conference to get three teams into the regionals, our guess is Cerritos and El Camino will advance. LA Southwest won five of its last six, and could pressure for El Camino for the final playoff slot.

Western State-East — On paper, this should be Citrus’ championship to lose. The Owls finished 2016 with a 12-3 record and loses were to San Diego City, Fresno and Feather River, all regularly ranked teams. Unfortunately, Citrus win column doesn’t exactly include a who’s who. The Owls have quality wins over Mt. San Jacinto, Fullerton and got revenge on San Diego City. Citrus will compete in the Chaffey Challenge prior to opening conference play. The Owls will open against El Camino-Compton Center and should/could end up meeting Chaffey in the finals. Winning this tournament would vault Citrus to the odds-on favorite. However, we’re not ready to count out Antelope Valley. The Marauders have played the 12^th toughest schedule in the state. The Marauders finish the season with games with Citrus and Glendale, and they could go a long way to deciding the conference champion.

Conference Winner: Citrus, we think the Owls have what it takes in the end to hold off Antelope Valley, but don’t be surprised if the Marauders make it very difficult for Citrus.

Playoff Contenders: Antelope Valley, and we liked Glendale after the Vaqueros won the Cypress Tournament in December and then took El Camino-Compton to overtime on its own court. Glendale could be one of those teams playing a regional play-in game to get into the post-season tournament.

Western State-North — The six teams in this division were a combined 13-28 in the month of December, so selecting a front runner is tough. Ventura has played the state’s 20^th toughest schedule and has a signature win over San Bernardino (second meeting). The Pirates also have a quality loss to Cerritos, by six points in the finals of the Sequoias Tournament. Then there is Moorpark which had a division-best four wins in December. But with the state’s 41^st best Massey Ranking, the Raiders lack any wins of quality headed into the MiraCosta Tournament where they will open against Miramar.

Conference Winner: Since we have to pick someone, we’ll go with Ventura.

Playoff Contenders: Based on playoff teams having to be .500 in conference/division play, we will go with Moorpark and Allan Hancock. But getting three in from this division — at this point — may be tough.

Western State-South — The Western State-South title chase figures to go through Bakersfield. The Renegades will begin 2017 with a 11-7 record. But what is interesting is that six of their seven losses have been by four points or less, and the losses have come against Chaffey in OT, Mt. San Jacinto, Grossmont and Foothill, teams mentioned as playoff contenders. However, we’re not counting out West LA, Santa Monica and Canyons. West LA (9-6) has played the state’s 21^st toughest schedule, which is better than Bakersfield (26th). Santa Monica has backed into 2017, after losing its last three games and four of seven games in the month of December. Canyons also struggled in December, losing five of nine games. But the list of losses is impressive — Riverside, Antelope Valley, Saddleback, San Diego City and Santa Ana. However, at some point, you need to win those games to be considered a conference contender.

Conference Winner: Bakersfield’s ability to win close games makes them a favorite.

Playoff Contenders: The race for the final playoff spot from this division could be interesting and entertaining. Look for West LA, Santa Monica and Canyons to battle it out, with LA Pierce playing a spoiler.